Hey guys, let’s cut to the chase—if you’ve been buying Indian mackerel from me over the last 5 years, you’ve probably noticed that sometimes the shipments hit a tiny delay, or the size of the fish isn’t quite what it used to be. Last year, a regular restaurant owner messaged me panicking because his usual batch of medium mackerel (the kind he uses for his crispy street-style special) was 20% smaller than the contract. I apologized, but honestly? This isn’t my fault—it’s climate change, and it’s messing with Indian mackerel way more than any of us saw coming. As someone who’s been supplying these fish to markets, restaurants, and even small grocery chains along the west and east coasts for a decade, I’m not here to give you a boring textbook lecture. I’m here to tell you what’s actually happening to the mackerel I source, why it matters for you (whether you’re a buyer or just someone who loves grilled mackerel for dinner), and what this means for the future of this cheap, delicious, super sustainable fish we all rely on. Indian Mackerel
First, let’s get one thing straight: Indian mackerel (scientific name Rastrelliger kanagurta, but let’s just call it “mackerel” from here on out) is the workhorse of global small-scale fishing. It’s fast-growing, reproduces like crazy, and is the go-to protein for billions of people in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and even parts of Africa. For me, it’s the backbone of my business—my orders come in steady, my teams know exactly how to handle them to stay fresh, and I can usually commit to a 48-hour turnaround. But over the last 7 years, that predictability’s gone out the window. Let’s break down the three biggest ways climate change is messing with these fish, based on what I see at the docks and what the scientists are actually saying (I don’t just make this stuff up—I chat with the local marine biologists at the coastal research center every month).
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The water’s getting too warm, and mackerel are on the move.
Mackerel are tropical fish, right? They like water between 20°C and 30°C. But over the last 10 years, the Arabian Sea (my main fishing ground—most of my mackerel comes from the Malabar Coast off Kerala and Karnataka) has warmed by almost 1.5°C. That might not sound like a big number, but for fish that can’t regulate their own body temperature? It’s a disaster. I used to send my fishing boats out to the same 5 spots 10km off the coast at 6 AM every day, and they’d come back with 200-300 kg of mackerel by noon. Now? Those same spots barely give 80-100 kg, and half the catch is tiny juveniles. Where are the big fish going? They’re moving south, to cooler waters near the coast of Tamil Nadu, or even out into the open ocean where the fishing grounds are less stable. Last year, I had to rent a boat from a guy in Chennai to cover a big order for a chain of seafood restaurants, and the fuel costs went up 30% because the boat had to sail 40km farther than usual to find the school. That extra cost? I can’t pass it all on to you, because mackerel is supposed to be affordable—so I’m cutting into my profit margins to keep my prices steady. The restaurants noticed, though—one of my clients told me his food costs went up $200 a month because he had to switch to a more expensive fish for a week when I couldn’t deliver my usual quantity. The fish aren’t just moving north or south; they’re shifting their entire spawning patterns. Mackerel used to spawn between March and June, when the water’s just right for baby fish to survive. Now they’re spawning a month early, in February, because the water warms up faster. But those February waters used to have less plankton—baby mackerel eat plankton, right? So when the spawn happens before the plankton bloom peaks, most of the babies don’t make it. That’s why the juvenile catch is so high now—so many of them die before they grow big enough to sell. -
Ocean acidification is breaking their little bodies, and they’re more stressed.
Wait, ocean acidification—isn’t that just for coral reefs? Yeah, coral gets all the hype, but fish get hit too. When CO2 from the atmosphere dissolves into the ocean, it makes the water more acidic. For small, schooling fish like mackerel, this is a double whammy. First, their gills are super sensitive to acidic water. My fisherman tell me that when the water pH is lower (more acidic), the fish are easier to catch—they’re so stressed they don’t fight back like they used to. Last month, one of my boats brought back a batch of fish that had torn gills; the captain said they must have been in a school that was exposed to a patch of acidified water and got disoriented. Second, acidification messes with their ability to build their bones and scales. I’ve noticed over the last 3 years that a lot of the mackerel I get have thinner scales, so they bruise way easier when we pack them in ice. That means more waste—before, I’d have to throw away 5% of each batch because of bruising; now it’s 12%. And for a supplier, waste is money out the window. On top of that, warmer water means less oxygen in the ocean, right? Fish need oxygen to swim and feed, so when there’s less oxygen, they’re weaker. They don’t school as tightly, so the nets catch less, and the ones that do get caught are smaller. -
Extreme weather is wiping out fishing boats and ruining catch storage.
I don’t need to tell you how much worse monsoons and cyclones have gotten over the last decade. The southwest monsoon used to hit Kerala in early June and last 2 months—now it hits a week early, dumps 2x the rain, and has random heavy storms in between. During monsoon season, we can’t fish at all because the sea is too rough. In 2021, Cyclone Tauktae hit the west coast in May, right before monsoon season. My main ice storage unit (the one I use to keep fish fresh before they go to market) was damaged, and 1,200 kg of fresh mackerel that I’d waiting for distribution spoiled. I lost almost $4,000 that day. And it’s not just my business—small-scale fishermen (the guys I work with, who own their own boats) are the ones hit hardest. Most of them don’t have insurance. A friend of mine who runs a tiny fishing co-op near Mangalore had his boat sunk in a storm in 2022, and he couldn’t afford to replace it for 6 months. So now he only fishes part-time, and my supply is 30% lower than it was 5 years ago. Restaurants have adjusted, but they’re also worried—they don’t want to raise their prices too much, because their customers will complain.
Here’s the part that matters for you, the buyers: why should you care? If you’re a restaurant owner, this means your usual supplier (that’s me!) might not be able to commit to the same volume, size, or delivery times as before. I’m working with a new group of fishermen in Karnataka to expand my fishing grounds, but that’s not a quick fix. And if you’re a regular customer who buys mackerel from your local grocery store, you might start seeing higher prices, or smaller fish, or even occasional gaps in stock. But before you think “well, I’ll just switch to salmon or tuna,” think about this: Indian mackerel is one of the most sustainable fish on the market. It’s low on the food chain, so it doesn’t have high levels of mercury like big predatory fish, and catching it uses way less fuel than catching tuna. If we lose mackerel, we lose a cheap, accessible protein that millions of people depend on.
Wait, but I’m not just here to complain— I’m here to tell you what I’m doing about it, and what we can do together as buyers and suppliers. First, I’m investing in more efficient fishing gear that uses less fuel and catches smaller, unmarketable fish less often. Last year, I switched to nets that have larger mesh sizes, so we let the juvenile fish pass through instead of catching them. That’s helped a little with the juvenile overload. Second, I’m working with a local marine conservation group to set up a small breeding program for mackerel, where we release baby fish back into the areas where their numbers are lowest. Third, I’m being transparent with all my buyers—if there’s a delay, or a small catch, I tell you why up front, not after you’re waiting on an order. And for the big clients, I’m offering flexible contracts that adjust for seasonal changes in catch, instead of rigid monthly volumes.
Here’s the thing: climate change isn’t some distant threat that happens to polar bears. It’s happening every single day to the fish I pull out of the Arabian Sea at 5 AM, to the fishermen who’ve been doing this for 30 years, and to my business. If you’re a restaurant owner who needs a reliable supplier, or a grocery store manager who wants to keep mackerel on your shelves, I’m here to talk. I can work with you on flexible delivery schedules, adjust to smaller batches when the catch is low, and make sure you get fresh, high-quality mackerel as much as humanly possible. I’m not a big corporate supplier— I’m a local guy who’s built this business on trust, and that’s not going to change, even with the oceans warming.
If you’re interested in chatting about bulk orders, seasonal availability, or even just asking me more about what’s going on with the mackerel, hit me up. I know times are tricky for everyone, but we can figure this out together.
Spanish Mackerel References:
- Cheung, W. W. L., et al. (2013). Climate change impacts on marine vertebrate functional diversity in the Pacific Ocean. Nature Communications.
- Madhu, N. V., et al. (2018). Warming of the Arabian Sea and its impacts on fisheries. Current Science.
- Fischer, J., et al. (2020). Small-scale fisheries and climate change vulnerability in South Asia. Fish and Fisheries.
- Portner, H. O., et al. (2019). Effects of ocean warming and acidification on marine fish and invertebrates. Annual Review of Marine Science.
- National Centre for Coastal Research (NCCR). (2022). Annual report on coastal water quality and fisheries along the Indian coastline.
Changshion Foods Co., Ltd.
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